Tlhoko le tlhahiso e fapaneng ea liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele ho pholletsa le limmaraka tse fapaneng li khanna boholo ba 'maraka oa eona ho tloha ho $38 bilione ho ea ho $79 bilione ka 2030. Kholo ena e matlafatsoa ke litlhoko le liphephetso tse fapaneng, leha ho le joalo e boloka mokhoa o tsoelang pele oa ho nyoloha. Ho feto-fetoha hona ho lumella liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele ho ts'ehetsa boqapi bo tsoelang pele le ho ikamahanya le maemo, ho fihlela litlhoko tse ikhethileng tsa limmaraka tse fapaneng mabapi le tlhahiso, litlhoko tsa tekheniki le litheko tse tloaelehileng tsa thekiso.
Leha ho le jwalo, ho tenyetseha hona ho boetse ho beha dikotsi indastering e tswetseng pele ya ho paka ha mebaraka e itseng e tobana le ho theoha kapa ho fetofetoha. Ka 2024, ho paka ho tswetseng pele ho rua molemo kgolong e potlakileng ya mmaraka wa ditsi tsa data, ha ho kgutla ha mebaraka e meholo jwalo ka mehala ya thekeng ho lieha haholo.
Ketane e tsoetseng pele ea phepelo ea liphutheloana ke e 'ngoe ea makala a manyenyane a matla ka ho fetisisa ka har'a ketane ea phepelo ea semiconductor ea lefats'e. Sena se bakoa ke ho kenella ha mehlala e fapaneng ea khoebo ho feta OSAT ea setso (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), bohlokoa ba leano la lipolotiki tsa indasteri, le karolo ea eona ea bohlokoa lihlahisoa tse sebetsang hantle.
Selemo se seng le se seng se tlisa lithibelo tsa sona tse bopang bocha sebaka sa ketane e tsoetseng pele ea phepelo ea liphutheloana. Ka 2024, lintlha tse 'maloa tsa bohlokoa li susumetsa phetoho ena: meeli ea bokhoni, liphephetso tsa chai, thepa le lisebelisoa tse hlahang, litlhoko tsa litšenyehelo tsa motse-moholo, melaoana ea lipolotiki le merero ea geopolotiki, tlhoko e matla mebarakeng e itseng, maemo a ntseng a fetoha, ba qalang ho kena, le ho fetoha ha thepa e tala.
Ho hlahile dilekane tse ngata tse ntjha ho rarolla diphephetso tsa ketane ya phepelo ka kopanelo le ka potlako. Ditheknoloji tsa bohlokwa tse tswetseng pele tsa ho paka di ntse di fuwa laesense ho barupeluoa ba bang ho tshehetsa phetoho e boreleli ho ya mefuteng e metjha ya kgwebo le ho sebetsana le dithibelo tsa bokgoni. Ho etswa ha maemo a di-chip ho ntse ho totobatswa ka ho eketsehileng ho kgothaletsa ditshebediso tse pharaletseng tsa di-chip, ho hlahloba mebaraka e metjha, le ho fokotsa moroalo wa matsete ka bomong. Ka 2024, ditjhaba tse ntjha, dikhamphani, dibaka le mela ya teko di qala ho inehela ho diphuthelong tse tswetseng pele—mokgwa o tla tswela pele ho fihlela ka 2025.
Pakete e tsoetseng pele ha e so fihlelle tekanyo ea theknoloji. Pakeng tsa 2024 le 2025, pakete e tsoetseng pele e fihletse katleho e kholo, 'me pokello ea theknoloji e atoloha ho kenyelletsa mefuta e mecha e matla ea mahlale le liforomo tsa AP tse seng li ntse li le teng, joalo ka moloko oa morao-rao oa Intel oa EMIB le Foveros. Pakete ea litsamaiso tsa CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) le eona e ntse e hapa tlhokomelo ea indasteri, ka mahlale a macha a ntseng a ntlafatsoa ho hohela bareki le ho atolosa tlhahiso.
Li-substrate tse tsoetseng pele tsa potoloho e kopaneng li emela indasteri e 'ngoe e amanang haufi-ufi, e arolelanang 'mapa oa litsela, melao-motheo ea moralo oa tšebelisano-'moho, le litlhoko tsa lisebelisoa tse nang le liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele.
Ntle le mahlale ana a mantlha, mahlale a 'maloa a "matla a sa bonahaleng" a tsamaisa mefuta-futa le boqapi ba liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele: litharollo tsa phepelo ea motlakase, mahlale a ho kenya, tsamaiso ea mocheso, thepa e ncha (joalo ka khalase le lintho tsa tlhaho tsa moloko o latelang), likhokahano tse tsoetseng pele, le liforomo tse ncha tsa lisebelisoa/lisebelisoa. Ho tloha lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki tsa mehala le tsa bareki ho ea litsing tsa bohlale ba maiketsetso le data, liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele li fetola mahlale a eona ho fihlela litlhoko tsa 'maraka o mong le o mong, e nolofalletsang lihlahisoa tsa eona tsa moloko o latelang ho khotsofatsa litlhoko tsa' maraka.
Mmaraka oa liphutheloana tsa maemo a holimo o lebelletsoe ho fihla ho $8 bilione ka 2024, ka litebello tsa ho feta $28 bilione ka 2030, e leng se bontšang sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo (CAGR) sa 23% ho tloha ka 2024 ho isa ho 2030. Mabapi le limmaraka tsa ho qetela, 'maraka o moholo ka ho fetisisa oa liphutheloana tsa tšebetso e phahameng ke "likhokahano tsa mehala le meralo ea motheo," e hlahisitseng chelete e fetang 67% ka 2024. E latelang haufi-ufi ke "'maraka oa mehala le oa bareki," e leng 'maraka o holang ka potlako ka CAGR ea 50%.
Mabapi le diyuniti tsa ho paka, ho paka ka boleng bo hodimo ho lebelletswe ho bona CAGR ya 33% ho tloha ka 2024 ho isa ho 2030, e eketsehang ho tloha ho diyuniti tse ka bang bilione e le nngwe ka 2024 ho ya ho diyuniti tse fetang bilione tse 5 ka 2030. Kgolo ena e kgolo e bakwa ke tlhoko e ntle ya ho paka ka boleng bo hodimo, mme theko e tloaelehileng ya thekiso e hodimo haholo ha e bapiswa le ho paka ka boleng bo sa tswelang pele haholo, e susumetswang ke phetoho ya boleng ho tloha pheletsong e ka pele ho ya pheletsong e ka morao ka lebaka la dipolatefomo tsa 2.5D le 3D.
Memori e nang le 3D stacked (HBM, 3DS, 3D NAND, le CBA DRAM) ke monehelo wa bohlokwa ka ho fetisisa, o lebelletsweng ho ikarabella bakeng sa karolo e fetang 70% ya mmaraka ka 2029. Di-platform tse holang ka potlako di kenyeletsa CBA DRAM, 3D SoC, di-interposer tse sebetsang tsa Si, di-stack tsa 3D NAND, le marokho a Si a kentsweng.
Litšitiso tsa ho kena ketane ea phepelo ea liphutheloana tsa maemo a holimo li ntse li eketseha haholo, ka li-foundry tse kholo tsa wafer le li-IDM tse sitisang tšimo ea liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele ka bokhoni ba tsona ba pele. Ho amoheloa ha theknoloji ea ho kopanya e kopantsoeng ho etsa hore boemo bo be thata haholo bakeng sa barekisi ba OSAT, kaha ke ba nang le bokhoni ba wafer le mehloli e mengata feela ba ka mamellang tahlehelo e kholo ea chai le matsete a maholo.
Ho fihlela ka 2024, bahlahisi ba memori ba emetsweng ke Yangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, le Micron ba tla busa, ba tšoere 54% ea 'maraka oa liphutheloana tsa maemo a holimo, kaha memori e nang le li-stacked tsa 3D e feta li-platform tse ling mabapi le lekeno, tlhahiso ea yuniti, le chai ea wafer. Ha e le hantle, palo ea theko ea liphutheloana tsa memori e feta haholo ea liphutheloana tsa logic. TSMC e etella pele ka karolo ea 'maraka ea 35%, e lateloa haufi-ufi ke Yangtze Memory Technologies ka 20% ea 'maraka oohle. Ba kenang ba bacha ba kang Kioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, le Samsung ba lebelletsoe ho kena ka potlako 'marakeng oa 3D NAND, ba hapa karolo ea' maraka. Samsung e boemong ba boraro ka karolo ea 16%, e lateloa ke SK Hynix (13%) le Micron (5%). Ha memori e nang le li-stacked tsa 3D e ntse e tsoela pele ho fetoha 'me lihlahisoa tse ncha li qalisoa, likarolo tsa 'maraka tsa bahlahisi bana li lebelletsoe ho hola hantle. Intel e latela haufi-ufi ka karolo ea 6%.
Bahlahisi ba ka sehloohong ba OSAT ba kang Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), JCET, Amkor, le TF ba ntse ba ameha ka mafolofolo mesebetsing ea ho qetela ea ho paka le ea liteko. Ba leka ho hapa karolo ea 'maraka ka litharollo tsa ho paka tsa maemo a holimo tse thehiloeng ho fan-out ea ultra-high-definition (UHD FO) le li-interposer tsa hlobo. Ntlha e 'ngoe ea bohlokoa ke tšebelisano-'moho ea bona le li-foundfinders tse etellang pele le bahlahisi ba lisebelisoa tse kopaneng (IDMs) ho netefatsa hore ba kenya letsoho mesebetsing ena.
Kajeno, ho phethahala ha dipakete tsa maemo a hodimo ho itshetlehile haholo hodima mahlale a fore-end (FE), ka ho kopana ha di-hybrid ho hlahella e le mokgwa o motjha. BESI, ka tshebedisano mmoho ya yona le AMAT, e bapala karolo ya bohlokwa mokgweng ona o motjha, e fana ka disebediswa ho dikhamphani tse kgolo tse kang TSMC, Intel, le Samsung, tseo kaofela di qothisanang lehlokoa le ho busa mmaraka. Bafepedi ba bang ba disebediswa, jwalo ka ASMPT, EVG, SET, le Suiss MicroTech, hammoho le Shibaura le TEL, le bona ke dikarolo tsa bohlokwa tsa ketane ya phepelo.
Mokhoa o moholo oa theknoloji ho pholletsa le liforomo tsohle tsa ho paka tse sebetsang hantle, ho sa tsotelehe mofuta oa tsona, ke phokotso ea bophahamo ba khokahanyo—mokhoa o amanang le li-via tsa through-silicon (TSVs), li-TMV, li-microbumps, esita le bond ea hybrid, eo ea morao-rao e hlahileng e le tharollo e matla ka ho fetisisa. Ho feta moo, bophara ba through le botenya ba wafer le bona bo lebelletsoe ho fokotseha.
Tsoelo-pele ena ea theknoloji e bohlokoa bakeng sa ho kopanya li-chip le li-chipset tse rarahaneng haholoanyane ho tšehetsa ts'ebetso le phetisetso ea data ka potlako ha ka nako e ts'oanang ho netefatsa tšebeliso e tlase ea matla le tahlehelo, qetellong ho nolofalletsa kopanyo e phahameng ea bongata le bandwidth bakeng sa meloko ea lihlahisoa tse tlang.
Ho kopanngoa ha 3D SoC lebasetere ho bonahala e le tšiea ea bohlokoa ea theknoloji bakeng sa ho paka ho tsoetseng pele molokong o latelang, kaha ho nolofalletsa libaka tse nyane tsa ho hokahana ha ho ntse ho eketsa sebaka se akaretsang sa SoC. Sena se nolofalletsa menyetla e kang ho bokella li-chipset ho tsoa ho SoC die e arotsoeng, ka hona ho nolofalletsa ho paka ho kopaneng ho sa tšoaneng. TSMC, ka theknoloji ea eona ea 3D Fabric, e fetohile moetapele oa ho paka ka 3D SoIC ho sebelisa ho kopanngoa ho kopantsoeng. Ho feta moo, ho kopanngoa ha chip-to-wafer ho lebelletsoe ho qala ka palo e nyane ea li-stack tsa HBM4E tsa 16-layer DRAM.
Chipset le kopanyo e fapaneng ke mokhoa o mong oa bohlokoa o susumetsang ho amoheloa ha liphutheloana tsa HEP, ka lihlahisoa tse fumanehang 'marakeng tse sebelisang mokhoa ona hajoale. Mohlala, Sapphire Rapids ea Intel e sebelisa EMIB, Ponte Vecchio e sebelisa Co-EMIB, 'me Meteor Lake e sebelisa Foveros. AMD ke morekisi e mong e moholo ea amohetseng mokhoa ona oa theknoloji lihlahisoa tsa eona, joalo ka li-processor tsa eona tsa Ryzen le EPYC tsa moloko oa boraro, hammoho le meralo ea chipset ea 3D ho MI300.
Nvidia e boetse e lebelletsoe ho amohela moralo ona oa chipset letotong la eona la moloko o latelang oa Blackwell. Joalokaha barekisi ba ka sehloohong ba kang Intel, AMD, le Nvidia ba se ba phatlalalitse, liphutheloana tse ling tse kenyelletsang die tse arotsoeng kapa tse kopilitsoeng li lebelletsoe ho fumaneha selemong se tlang. Ho feta moo, mokhoa ona o lebelletsoe ho amoheloa lits'ebetsong tse phahameng tsa ADAS lilemong tse tlang.
Mokhoa o akaretsang ke ho kopanya li-platform tse ling tsa 2.5D le 3D ka har'a sephutheloana se le seng, seo ba bang indastering ba seng ba ntse ba se bitsa liphutheloana tsa 3.5D. Ka hona, re lebeletse ho bona ho hlaha ha liphutheloana tse kopanyang li-chip tsa 3D SoC, li-interposer tsa 2.5D, marokho a silicon a kentsoeng, le li-optics tse kopantsoeng hammoho. Li-platform tse ncha tsa liphutheloana tsa 2.5D le 3D li haufi, e leng se eketsang ho rarahana ha liphutheloana tsa HEP.
Nako ea poso: Phato-11-2025